Insights
Insights
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9 July 2026 – Income Tax Publication Day
Final Income Tax outturn data for 2024‑25 was published by HMRC today. The data released will result in a large reduction to the Scottish Government’s funding in 2027‑28. This is the largest adjustment because of Income Tax since it was devolved to the Scottish Parliament.
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25 June 2026 – The road to the 2027-28 Scottish Budget
Ahead of Parliament’s summer recess, this Insight summarises upcoming fiscal publications, events and parliamentary scrutiny that will take place before the Scottish Budget is published this winter. So, what’s coming up and how does it all feed into the Scottish Budget? Income Tax revenues As we discussed in our Insight earlier this week, on 9 July HMRC will publish data on how much Income Tax was collected in Scotland and other parts of the UK in 2024-25, enabling the calculation of the ‘true’ Income Tax net…
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23 June 2026 – Understanding Scottish Income Tax reconciliations
On 9 July, HMRC publishes how much Income Tax raised across the UK nations in 2024-25. This allows comparisons of forecasts with money raised and a ‘reconciliation’ to the Scottish Budget. This Insight explains this technical but important process.
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16 June 2026 – Economy key issues: looking back and ahead
This Insight considers two challenging economic issues influencing the Scottish outlook: 1) the increase in people not working due to ill-health and 2) weak productivity. Both these factors impact on living standards and public finances.
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2 June 2026 – The role and work of the Scottish Fiscal Commission
This Insight explains the role and work of the Scottish Fiscal Commission.
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21 May 2026 – Economic uncertainty continues
This Insight considers some of the potential economic and fiscal implications from recent events in the Middle East.
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20 May 2026 – What’s in the new government’s Budget in-tray?
This Insight considers some of the fiscal and economic challenges facing the new government.
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25 March 2026 – The Scottish Fiscal Commission during the election period
We won’t be publishing anything over the upcoming Scottish Parliamentary election period. This Insight signposts readers to where they may find details of our recent work and get in touch with any technical questions.
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19 March 2026 – Social security uprating
Devolved social security payments will be uprated in April Earlier this month, Parliament agreed the rates for devolved social security payments in 2026-27. These payments are increased each year to account for price inflation. Parliament agreed that from April most payments will be increased by 3.8 percent, the rate of inflation in September 2025. This…
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12 March 2026 – More People Reporting Disabilities and Receiving Support
The rate of people receiving disability payments in the UK has increased across all ages between 2020 and 2025, but has increased more in Scotland. This Insight discusses these trends and possible reasons for them.