With a new Scottish Parliament (including 64 new MSPs) and a new Government in place, it feels timely to publish an Insight describing our work as Scotland’s official independent fiscal forecaster. This Insight explains what we do to support the Scottish Government’s two fiscal events each year – their Budget (usually in December) and their Medium-Term Financial Strategy (MTFS) (usually in May).
What do we do?
As Scotland’s independent fiscal institution, we were set up in 2017 to produce the official forecasts used in the Scottish Budget and MTFS. We publish five-year forecasts of:
- tax revenues from Scottish Income Tax, Land and Buildings Transaction Tax, Scottish Landfill Tax, Scottish Aggregates Tax, Air Departure Tax (from 2027-28) and Non-Domestic Rates.
- spending on social security payments managed by the Scottish Government, including ill health and disability payments, carer’s payments, Scottish Child Payment and Discretionary Housing Payments.
- Scottish onshore Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and other economic factors such as employment and earnings which feed into our fiscal forecasts.
We also assess the reasonableness of the Scottish Government’s borrowing plans. Part of this involves commenting on and analysing the Scottish Government’s spending plans, for example, social security spending. Unlike many other types of spending, social security depends on how many people qualify for support. The ‘demand led’ nature of this spending makes its management more challenging and harder to predict. Over time we have commented on more aspects of the Scottish Government’s spending plans, for example on public sector pay.
You can find more detail on how our tax forecasts feed into projections of the total funding available to the Scottish Government in our Insight from earlier this year, Managing Budgets in a world of forecasts.
After publishing our forecasts we give evidence in Parliament on what we have said, and in particular any risks attached to our forecasts. Quite often we’ll be asked questions too on social security and other spending plans. We also undertake broader public engagement activities, including speaking at various events and workshops. You can also catch up with our forecasts and their implications for the Budget and MTFS in our online webinars which take place regularly throughout the year – sign up to our mailing list to be notified of when they take place.
In recent years, and on the back of Finance Committee recommendations and OECD reviews of our work, we have moved beyond this core remit. We have published reports considering longer term fiscal sustainability issues and undertaken greater analysis of government spending decisions. Over the coming parliamentary session we will continue to expand this work.
We are independent of Government
The Scottish Fiscal Commission is a Non-Ministerial Office – this means we are part of the Scottish Administration, but not part of the Scottish Government. Our founding legislation explicitly prevents the Scottish Government from directing us and helps guard our operational independence.
We are directly accountable to the Scottish Parliament for the delivery of our functions which were set out in the Scottish Fiscal Commission Act 2016.
Independent fiscal institutions play an increasingly important role in the public finances. Throughout the world, governments and legislatures rely on independent bodies to strengthen confidence in public finances and we are part of the OECD network of independent fiscal institutions.
Our independence is very important to us in building trust and credibility. While we work closely with Government officials to access data and understand policy developments, our judgements are our own.
This independence allows us to provide objective analysis, even when economic circumstances are challenging or forecasts are uncertain.
Supporting better understanding of fiscal and economic issues
Fiscal policy – how the government taxes and spends money – can sometimes feel technical or inaccessible. Part of our role is to make Scotland’s fiscal and economic outlook easier to understand. This year we have started to do this via short and accessible articles which we call SFC Insights.
We aim to communicate our analysis clearly and openly, explaining not only our forecasts but also the risks and uncertainties surrounding them. Forecasting inevitably involves professional judgment, and being transparent about those judgments is essential.
Good fiscal institutions do more than produce numbers. They contribute to a stronger public conversation about priorities, trade-offs and long-term sustainability. For taxpayers and citizens, this matters because decisions about public finances affect everyone — from funding for healthcare and education to the sustainability of social security and infrastructure investment.
Our team
We are currently a team of three Commissioners, supported by a superb team of staff.
Professor Graeme Roy is the Chair and has been at the helm of the organisation since June 2022. He has recently been reappointed for a second and final term which will run until May 2030. Graeme is joined by two fellow Commissioners. Justine Riccomini and Dr Eleanor Ryan who started in October 2025. We hope to recruit a fourth Commissioner later this year.
Contact us
We are always happy to speak to anyone interested in our role and work. You can contact us with general enquiries via info@Fiscalcommission.scot and press enquiries can be sent to press@fiscalcommission.scot.
You can subscribe to our regular updates and work here.
You can also find us on X, Bluesky, Linkedin, Instagram and Facebook.