Explainers

Future social security

The devolution of the areas of social security set out in the Social Security (Scotland) Act 2018 is completed. However, several continue to be administered by the Department for Work and Pensions under Agency Agreements. While this continues, we produce forecasts of spending under UK Government policy, switching to forecast the new Scottish benefits when sufficient policy details are available.

A phased pilot for Pension Age Disability Payment, the replacement payment for Attendance Allowance, started in October 2024, and will be launched nationally in April 2025.

Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (PAWHP) has replaced the UK Government’s Winter Fuel Payment (WFP) in Scotland in winter 2024-25. The payment is administered by DWP in winter 2024-25 and will be administered by Social Security Scotland from 2025-26 onwards.

In our forecast, we assume that Employment Injuries Assistance (EIA) will replace the suite of industrial injuries benefits that are part of the current Industrial Injuries Disablement Scheme (IIDS) in Scotland from 2025-26. Policy details for the replacement payment, timing of implementation and case transfer approach are yet to be confirmed.

The Scottish Government has also announced that it plans to develop an approach to mitigate the two-child limit in the UK-wide Universal Credit from 2026-27 onwards. The additional cost of this policy is not included in our December 2024 forecast or estimates of the gap between social security spending and funding.