Explainers

Future social security

The devolution of the areas of social security set out in the Social Security (Scotland) Act 2018 is completed. However, several benefits continue to be administered by the Department for Work and Pensions under Agency Agreements. While this continues, we produce forecasts of spending under UK Government policy, switching to forecast the new Scottish benefits when sufficient policy details are available.

Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (PAWHP) has replaced the UK Government’s Winter Fuel Payment (WFP) in Scotland in winter 2024-25. The payment was administered by DWP in winter 2024-25 and will be administered by Social Security Scotland from 2025-26 onwards.

In our forecast, we assume that Employment Injuries Assistance (EIA) will replace the suite of industrial injuries benefits that are part of the Industrial Injuries Disablement Scheme (IIDS) in Scotland. The Scottish Government stated in the response to the consultation in 2024 that it will not deliver EIA in Scotland in the current Parliament. Policy details for the replacement payment, timing of implementation, and case transfer approach are yet to be confirmed.

The Scottish Government has also announced that it plans to mitigate the two-child limit in the UK-wide Universal Credit. Our forecasts include the costs of a mitigation payment from 2026-27 onwards.