Since publishing our Fiscal Update, Forecast Evaluation Report and Statement of Data Needs in August, the Scottish Fiscal Commission has continued to support parliamentary scrutiny of Scotland’s economic and fiscal outlook.
In September we published a series of SFC Insights examining some of the key issues that are likely to influence the Scottish Budget and Scotland’s public finances over the coming months.
2027-28 Scottish Budget
The Scottish Government plans to publish the 2027-28 Scottish Budget on Thursday 3 December 2026. Alongside the Budget, we will publish our next independent forecasts.
Our report Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts will provide our latest five-year forecasts for the Scottish economy, devolved tax revenues and social security spending, together with an assessment of the Scottish Government’s overall fiscal position.
Parliamentary Engagement
Throughout September, we continued to engage with Members of the Scottish Parliament and support Parliamentary understanding of Scotland’s public finances. Commissioners and staff appeared before the Finance and Public Administration Committee on 2 September, with Professor Graeme Roy, Dr Eleanor Ryan, Claire Murdoch and David Stone giving evidence on the Commission’s recent publications.
There were additional appearances at the Social Justice, Housing and Local Government Committee on 23 September, with Dr Eleanor Ryan and Michael Davidson contributing to pre-budget scrutiny and the Climate Action Committee on 24 September, where Professor Graeme Roy gave evidence as part of the Committee’s pre-budget scrutiny work.
On 7 September 2026, the Scottish Fiscal Commission also delivered an MSP Fiscal Literacy: The Essentials – Devolution and the interaction of UK and Scottish Budgets induction session, providing an overview of the Scottish Budget process, devolved tax and social security powers, and the role of forecasts and reconciliations in Scotland’s public finances. Presentation slides are available on our website.
SFC Insights
During September we published three new Insights:
The Scottish Government’s efficiency and workforce plans – 30 September 2026
This Insight examined the Scottish Government’s plans to deliver £1.5 billion of efficiency savings between 2026-27 and 2028-29, including planned reductions in the size of the public sector workforce. It explained the role these planned savings could play in helping to manage pressures on future budgets. It can be read here: 30 September 2026 – The Scottish Government’s efficiency and workforce plans | Scottish Fiscal Commission
Looking ahead to the Autumn Budget Revision: better news this year, tougher choices next year – 22 September 2026
This Insight explored the Autumn Budget Revision process and highlighted that while the current financial year may benefit from some improvements, significant pressures remain for future budgets, particularly in 2027-28. It can be read here: 22 September 2026 – Looking ahead to the Autumn Budget Revision: better news this year, tougher choices next year | Scottish Fiscal Commission
Forecasts for Scottish Income Tax, Block Grant Adjustments and reconciliations – 17 September 2026
This Insight explained how forecasts of Scottish Income Tax and corresponding Block Grant Adjustments interact to affect the Scottish Budget, and how reconciliations arise when final tax receipts differ from earlier forecasts. It can be read here: 17 September 2026 – Forecasts for Scottish income tax, block grant adjustments and reconciliations | Scottish Fiscal Commission
Further Insights can be viewed on our website at: Insights | Scottish Fiscal Commission.
Recent Publications
In August we published three reports:
• Forecast Evaluation Report 2026
• Statement of Data Needs 2026
These reports provided an update on the economy and Scottish Government’s fiscal position and set out issues likely to be relevant to scrutiny of the forthcoming Scottish Budget.
Social Media
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