Tuesday 13 January 2026 – Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts These forecasts are part of the Commission’s main forecast publication series and will provide new economic, tax and social security forecasts to accompany the 2026-27 Scottish Budget and Spending Review. They will be published when the Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Local Government completes her…

Today we have published an Error Correction Notice in relation to this report on our website. 

Dr Eleanor Ryan and Justine Riccomini have been appointed as new Commissioners at the Scottish Fiscal Commission, Scotland’s official independent economic and fiscal forecaster.

Climate change and the associated costs of meeting the Scottish Government’s carbon emission targets will put significant pressure on the Scottish budget, the Scottish Fiscal Commission has said today. Under the Paris Agreement, both the Scottish and UK Governments have committed to help limit global warming through their own carbon emissions targets. These will require…

In its Fiscal Update published today, the Scottish Fiscal Commission has said that the Scottish Spending Review due this December provides an opportunity for the Scottish Government and the Scottish Parliament to address both the immediate budget pressures and, crucially, long‑term fiscal sustainability challenges. The Scottish Government’s Medium-term Financial Strategy (MTFS) in June set out…

The Scottish Fiscal Commission has today published an update to its economic and fiscal forecasts alongside the Scottish Government’s Medium-Term Financial Strategy. It reflects changes since the Commission published its forecasts on 29 May including the UK Government’s Spending Review and new Scottish Government tax and social security policies. Total funding in 2026-27 will be £61.3 billion…

Our next report accompanies the Scottish Government’s Medium-Term Financial Strategy and Fiscal Sustainability Delivery Plan that will be published on Wednesday 25 June. Our report will give an updated overview of the Scottish Government’s funding position and the fiscal pressures it faces following yesterday’s UK Spending Review. The report will also provide costings for any…

The Scottish Fiscal Commission has today published its latest economic and fiscal forecasts. These forecasts will inform the Scottish Government’s Medium-Term Financial Strategy, to be published in June. The Commission estimates that total funding available to the Scottish Government in 2025-26 will be £59.6 billion, almost £0.8 billion higher than in their December 2024 forecast.…

We updated this release on 8 April 2025, to correct an error in the annual budget gap between 2030-31 and 2049-50. It was stated as 1.6 per cent, where it should have been 1.5 per cent. The Scottish Fiscal Commission has today said that the challenges in funding healthcare will become more acute over the…