Tuesday 25 August 9:30 AM: Fiscal Update, Forecast Evaluation Report and Statement of Data Needs
Fiscal Update – This update considers the implications for the new Scottish Government’s fiscal outlook of developments since our January 2026 forecast as the new Parliament returns after the summer recess.
Forecast Evaluation Report – evaluates our December 2024 forecasts for economy, fully devolved taxes, and social security used to set the 2025-26 Scottish Budget. We also evaluate our December 2023 income tax forecast used in setting the earlier 2024-25 Scottish Budget.
Statement of Data Needs – describes the main areas where we believe improvements are required in the data and information we use for forecasting and analysis of spending.
Webinar
What Scotland’s finances mean for the next parliament
11:00 AM Wednesday 11 March
We are holding a webinar next Wednesday on recent trends in the Scottish Government’s finances and the fiscal challenges facing the next parliament.
All are welcome to join us, registration here: Public Webinar – What Scotland’s finances mean for the next parliament Tickets, Wednesday, Mar 11 from 11 am to 12 pm GMT | Eventbrite
Recent Publications
What Scotland’s finances mean for the next Parliament
Our report published on Wednesday 25 February set out the key fiscal challenges facing the next Scottish Parliament and brought together the fiscal pressures identified through our forecasts and longer‑term work on fiscal sustainability. The report is available to read here: Fiscal Sustainability Perspectives: what Scotland’s finances mean for the next parliament – February 2026 | Scottish Fiscal Commission
Non-Domestic Rates – Supplementary Costing
On 24 February we published a supplementary costing of two changes to NDR policy: Supplementary Costing – Non-Domestic Rates Measures – February 2026 | Scottish Fiscal Commission
Recent Insights
We have published four Insights in the past month, focusing on budget and taxation issues as Parliament has undertaken detailed scrutiny of the Scottish Government’s Budget Bill.
Our first Insight considered the emerging budget scrutiny issue of how comparisons to the Government’s spending plans in previous years are made. Read it here: 12 February 2026 – Where the money goes: comparing Scotland’s Budget year to year | Scottish Fiscal Commission
Our second Insight considered the medium-term day-to-day spending priorities of the Scottish Government as presented in its recent Spending Review. Read it here: 17 February 2026 – Spending priorities for the coming years | Scottish Fiscal Commission
Our third Insight looked at Scottish Government income tax policy, explained how the Scottish tax system differs to the rest of the UK and raises extra funding for the Scottish Budget through a concept known as ‘fiscal drag’. Read it here: 24 February 2026 – Fiscal drag drives revenues | Scottish Fiscal Commission
Finally, today we published an Insight considering ‘capital’ spending on public infrastructure like roads, schools and hospitals. It explains why this is important for the economy and public services, and the outlook for capital spending. Read it here: 5 March 2026: Tough decisions on Infrastructure spending for the next Scottish Government | Scottish Fiscal Commission