Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – May 2019
Our report, Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts May 2019, was published on 30 May 2019 setting out our five-year forecasts of the Scottish economy, tax receipts, social security expenditure and an assessment of whether the Scottish Government’s projections of borrowing are reasonable.
The summary of our report sets out the forecasts produced and the main assumptions and judgements that underpin them. We have also produced an infographic of our main forecasts.
Full Report
Report Summary
Forecast Infographic
Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts
Following publication of our forecast we gave evidence to:
The Finance and Constitution Committee – June 05, 2019
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Nominal Earnings | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 3.2 |
| Real Earnings | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Tax | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2024-25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Tax | 11,486 | 11,703 | 12,332 | 14,613 |
| Non-Domestic Rates | 2,885 | 2,803 | 2,853 | 3,318 |
| LBTT | 553 | 616 | 655 | 794 |
| Scottish Landfill Tax | 143 | 109 | 87 | 15 |
| Social Security – Devolved | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2024-25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carer’s Allowance (inc. Supplement) | 186 | 323 | 344 | 444 |
| Discretionary Housing Payments | 62 | 64 | 66 | 73 |
| Employability Services | 19 | 16 | 24 | 0 |
| Best Start Grant | 4 | 21 | 16 | 18 |
| Best Start Foods | – | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| Funeral Support Payment | – | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| Social Security – Illustrative | 2020-21 | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | 2024-25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustrative forecast | 3,039 | 3,169 | 3,310 | 3,638 |