Publications

Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – May 2018

Our report, Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts, was published on 31 May 2018 setting out our five-year forecasts of the Scottish economy, tax receipts, social security expenditure and an assessment of whether the Scottish Government’s projections of borrowing are reasonable.

The summary of our report sets out the forecasts produced and the main assumptions and judgements that underpin them. We have also produced an infographic of our main forecasts.

Full Report

open Full Report – Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – May 2018

Executive Summary

open Executive Summary – Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – May 2018

Forecast infographic

open Forecast infographic – Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – May 2018

Following publication of this forecast we gave evidence to:

The Finance and Constitution Committee – June 06, 2018

 
Economy forecasts (% growth unless otherwise stated)
Economy 2017 2018 2019 2023
GDP 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9
Trend Productivity 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1
Nominal Wages 1.1 1.6 1.8 3.2
Real Wages -1.0 -0.5 0.0 1.2
Employment 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.1
Tax forecasts (£ million)
Tax 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2023-24
Income Tax 11,267 11,467 11,969 14,547
Non-Domestic Rates 2,731 2,774 2,788 3,339
LBTT 484 550 614 827
Scottish Landfill Tax 148 142 114 88
Social Security forecasts (£ million)
Social Security 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2023-24
Carer’s Allowance (inc. Supplement) 11,267 11,467 11,969 14,547
Discretionary Housing Payments 50 60 61 69
Scottish Welfare Fund 33 33 33 33
Employability 0 11 20 0