News & Events

News & Events

  • Fiscal pressures not unique to Scotland but plan needed

    This article by our chair Professor Graeme Roy was published in The Herald newspaper on 13 March 2023. Later this month at the Scottish Fiscal Commission, we’ll publish Scotland’s first fiscal sustainability report (FSR). An FSR is designed to help policymakers identify key long-term pressures and opportunities facing the economy and the public finances. In turn,…

  • Higher Prices Puts Pressure on Households

    The Scottish Fiscal Commission today said the purchasing power of household incomes is anticipated to fall by the largest amount since Scottish records began in 1998. Inflation will peak at around 11 per cent by the end of this year and is outstripping pay settlements. Interest rates have risen to levels not seen since before…

  • Supply and demand pressures on public funding

    Speech to SOLACE Scotland conference (Society of Local Authority Chief Executives – Scotland) Delivered by Professor Graeme Roy, chair of the Scottish Fiscal Commission, on 15 September 2022 Introduction Thank you Monica for the introduction. It’s a pleasure to speak with you this afternoon. I’ve been fortunate to interact with SOLACE colleagues in different forums…

  • Updated forecasts for Scottish Child Payment spending

    Today the Scottish Fiscal Commission has published updated forecasts of spending on the Scottish Child Payment to accompany regulations extending eligibility to older children and increasing the weekly payment amount to £25 per child. Both these measures were included in the Commission’s May 2022 forecasts, but the forecasts have been revised to reflect higher inflation…

  • Short term fiscal boost but longer-term challenges

    The Scottish Fiscal Commission has today published a report looking back at the accuracy of its forecasts and two reports looking forward to its work on fiscal sustainability. Forecast evaluation Scottish income tax revenues for 2020-21 were £417 million lower than forecast when the Scottish Budget was set in February 2020, before COVID-19 was declared a…

  • Forthcoming publications – August 2022

    30 August 2022, 9.30am – The first papers on fiscal sustainability covering the proposed scope of next year’s Fiscal Sustainability Report along with an overview of the Scottish Government’s funding and spending, consultation questions and long term economic and demographic projections for Scotland. 30 August 2022, 9.30am – Forecast Evaluation Report.  A review of our forecast performance in 2021-22 and our income tax forecasts…

  • Tough spending constraints and greater economic uncertainty

    The Scottish Fiscal Commission has today published its latest forecasts alongside the Scottish Government’s Resource Spending Review that sets out its spending plans up to 2026-27. The outlook for the Scottish economy is much more uncertain than in the last forecast in December 2021. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, steeply rising energy prices and further…

  • New chair and commissioner for Scottish Fiscal Commission

    Professor Graeme Roy has been appointed to be the new chair of the Scottish Fiscal Commission, Scotland’s official independent economic and fiscal forecaster.

  • Forthcoming publications and events – May 2022

    Publications 31 May 2022 – Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts. We’ll publish our next set of five year forecasts to accompany the Scottish Government’s Medium Term Financial Strategy and Resource Spending Review. Our forecasts are part of the Commission’s main forecast publication series and will provide new economic, tax and social security forecasts. Events 14 June 2022…

  • Scottish Budget faces pressures from tax and social security

    The Scottish Fiscal Commission says today it expects a strong economic recovery in 2021-22 with Scottish GDP growing by 10.4 per cent and economic activity returning to pre-pandemic levels by the second quarter of 2022. But there is some evidence that the Scottish economy has been lagging behind the rest of the UK. Scottish income…