News & Events

News & Events

  • Mitigating the two-child limit and the Scottish Budget – 7 January 2025

    The Scottish Fiscal Commission has today published a costing for mitigating the two‑child limit in Universal Credit in Scotland. This policy was announced by the Scottish Government in its Budget in December, but was not included in the Commission’s forecasts published at the time. The Scottish Government plans to implement the policy in 2026. The…

  • Scottish Budget Remains Tight Despite Extra Funding Following UK Autumn Budget – 4 December 2024

    The Scottish budget depends upon funding from the UK Government and revenue from taxes raised by the Scottish Government. Following the UK Autumn Budget the Scottish Government has seen a significant increase in UK Government funding. The Block Grant for capital spending now grows by 10.1 per cent between 2024‑25 and 2025‑26, whereas previously it was expected…

  • Now is the time to play the long game as high-stakes Budget crunch approaches

    Article by our chair Professor Graeme Roy, first published in the Herald on 14 October 2024.

  • Commission Estimates Impact of Pension Age Winter Heating Payment Changes

    The Scottish Fiscal Commission has today published an updated forecast for Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (PAWHP) to accompany the Scottish Government’s regulations that have been laid in Parliament. The new Scottish regulations mirror the changes announced by the UK Government on 29 July 2024 for Winter Fuel Payment in England and Wales. The Commission…

  • Scottish Budget pressures unlikely to be removed by UK Budget decisions

    27 August 2024 Last December the Scottish Fiscal Commission stressed the pressures on spending the Scottish Government would face in 2024-25. The Commission has today confirmed that the Scottish Government will face persistent challenges in balancing its budget. In advance of the UK Budget on 30 October, there is considerable uncertainty around the Scottish Government’s…

  • Fiscal risk from lack of clarity on climate change spending

    14 March 2024 The Scottish Fiscal Commission has analysed the implications for the Scottish public finances of meeting Scotland’s statutory emissions target to reach net zero by 2045, adapting to climate change and handling the damage it will cause. Unmitigated climate change would have catastrophic impacts on individuals, businesses and the public finances. In line…

  • Time for frank conversation on cost of climate measures

    Article by our chair Professor Graeme Roy, first published in the Herald on 11 March 2024.

  • Spending trends in the 2024-25 Scottish Budget

    23 January 2024 The Scottish Fiscal Commission has today published new analysis of the Scottish Government’s spending plans. The Commission compares spending between 2022?23 and 2024?25 using COFOG, a set of internationally recognised functional categories. By looking at the most recent spending position in 2022?23 and 2023?24, the analysis complements the Scottish Government’s presentation which…

  • The key numbers in Scottish Budget’s income tax choices

    Article by our chair Professor Graeme Roy, first published in the Herald on 8 January 2024 about income tax in Scotland and its impact upon the economy and public finances.

  • Scottish Budget under pressure despite higher tax revenues

    19 December 2023 The Scottish Fiscal Commission today said that the Scottish Government’s budget next year is set to increase by £1.3 billion from the latest figure for 2023-24. This is a rise of 2.6 per cent in cash terms or 0.9 percent after accounting for inflation. Most of this increase in funding comes from…