Following the publication of the UK Budget, we are looking ahead to our next Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts (SEFF) which will be published alongside the Scottish Budget on Thursday 3rd December. As we prepare for the publication we will be taking a short break from publishing Insights.
The SEFF is the Scottish Fiscal Commission’s flagship publication. It sets out our five-year forecasts for the Scottish economy, devolved tax revenues and social security expenditure, alongside an assessment of the Scottish Government’s overall fiscal position.
Developing these forecasts is a lengthy and detailed process. Our analysts work closely with Commissioners, taking in the views of external stakeholders to assess the latest economic and fiscal evidence, helping to ensure our forecasts remain robust and transparent. We make our forecasting judgements independently, drawing on this evidence alongside our own analysis and expertise.
We have a protocol with the Scottish Government which sets out how we work with the Scottish Government to produce our forecasts alongside the Budget. The protocol is required by our legislation and sets out the deadlines for both us and the Scottish Government to provide information to each other. We have just updated the protocol and the latest version can be found on our website. Information on the specific deadlines for the timetable for this Budget can be found in the letter we have sent the Finance and Public Administration Committee.
While our Insights series will pause for a short period, there will be plenty of opportunities to engage with our work once the forecasts are published. We will return with our Insights series, taking a closer look at some of the key themes emerging from the forecasts. These articles will provide additional context and analysis to help explain the economic and fiscal developments that underpin our forecasts and what they mean for Scotland’s public finances.
Our Commissioners and senior management team will share and discuss the key findings and implications of the forecasts through parliamentary committee appearances and our public webinar. Committee sessions, including those with the Scottish Parliament’s Finance and Public Administration committee, provide an opportunity to explain our forecasts, answer questions from Members, and support scrutiny of Scotland’s public finances.
If you would like to learn more about the forecasts and their implications for Scotland’s public finances, join us for our public webinar at 10:00am on 10 December 2026. The webinar will be streamed live on YouTube, with questions submitted through Slido. This is a great opportunity to hear directly from our commissioners, explore the key findings, and have your questions about the forecasts answered. For more details, including how to register, keep an eye on our website and social media channels or join our mailing list.
In the meantime, thank you for following our Insights series. We look forward to returning with more bite-sized analysis following the Scottish Budget.