Publications

Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – May 2023

Our report, Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – May 2023, was published on 25 May 2023 setting out our five-year forecasts of the Scottish economy, tax receipts, social security expenditure and an assessment of whether the Scottish Government’s projections of borrowing are reasonable.

The summary of our report sets out the forecasts produced and the main assumptions and judgements that underpin them. We have also produced a Quick Visual Guide to help users quickly understand our forecasts.

These documents were revised on 1 June 2023 to correct some minor issues in tax forecasts. None of the headline forecast numbers are affected. A log of changes can be found in the Supporting Documents section (link).

Full Report – revised June 2023

open Full Report – revised June 2023 – Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – May 2023

Summary – revised June 2023

open Summary – revised June 2023 – Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – May 2023

Quick Visual Guide

open Quick Visual Guide – Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – May 2023

Following the publication of our forecasts on 25 May, we gave evidence to the Finance and Public Administration Committee on 7 June 2023. You can see a recording of the session here:

The Finance and Public Administration Committee on 7 June 2023