Forthcoming Publications
25 June 2025 – Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – MTFS Update June 2025
This publication will accompany the Scottish Government’s Medium-Term Financial Strategy and Fiscal Sustainability Delivery Plan now being published on 25 June. The report will restate our economy, tax and social security forecasts published on 29 May and provide costings for any new Government social security or tax policies. It will also provide updated commentary on the Scottish Government’s funding position and fiscal pressures as well as assessing the reasonableness of the borrowing plans. The report will be published once the Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Local Government has completed her statement to the Scottish Parliament.
26 August 2025 – Forecast Evaluation Report
A review of our forecast performance in 2024-25 and our income tax forecasts for 2023-24.
26 August 2025 – Fiscal Update
This update will consider the implications for the Scottish Government’s fiscal outlook of new information that has become available since June 2025. This new information includes outturn data for Scottish income tax in 2023-24. To aid Parliament’s pre-Budget scrutiny the update will also provide commentary on the pressures facing the Scottish Budget.
Early September 2025 (date TBC) – Fiscal Sustainability Perspectives: Climate Change Mitigation
This publication will explore how climate change mitigation will affect for the Scottish Government. Using updated data, we will estimate the cost of reaching net zero by 2045 for the Scottish Government and outline what the Government’s Climate Change Plan needs to cover to allow us to assess the fiscal risks of mitigation.
Commissioner Recruitment: Appointment of up to two Commissioners to the Scottish Fiscal Commission – Deadline 12:00 on 10 June 2025
The Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Local Government is seeking to appoint two Commissioners to the Scottish Fiscal Commission. In order to carry out its work effectively, the Scottish Fiscal Commission values diversity of thought, skill and insight. It would welcome applications from a wide range of backgrounds who have experience of public spending, tax or public finance issues, including the third sector, local and central government.
These appointments are subject to approval by the Scottish Parliament.
More information about applying for this role, including an applicant information pack, is available on the Public Appointments Scotland website.
Staff Recruitment: we’re recruiting two analysts – Deadline 23:59 on 29 June 2025
We’re looking to recruit two analysts, with one post to fill in our economic forecasting team and another in our public funding team.
You’ll have the opportunity to develop new skills, learn about how we model the economy and public finances, and influence the work of the Commission.
More information can be found in the links above.
Corporate Publication
Summer 2025 – Scottish Fiscal Commission Corporate Plan 2025-2028
Our third corporate plan will set out our strategic objectives for the period 2025-28.
Recent Publications
Thursday 29 May 2025 – Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts
Our latest five-year forecasts were published on Thursday 29 May and are part of the Commission’s main forecast publication series. They provide new economic, tax and social security forecasts as well as our fiscal overview.
We held a public webinar on Thursday 29 May, a recording of this webinar can be found here: Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecast May 2025 | SEFF – YouTube.
Tuesday 8 April 2025– Fiscal Sustainability Report
Our second report on the long-term fiscal sustainability of the Scottish Government’s budget. This report presented updated projections of funding and spending with a focus on health. The report is available on our website: Fiscal Sustainability Report – April 2025.
Recent Correspondence
Our Chair wrote to the Finance and Public Administration Committee setting out the key milestones in the timetable for our June publication alongside the MTFS. The letter is available at: Letter from Professor Graeme Roy to Finance and Public Administration Committee about the revised timetable for our MTFS report – 20 May 2025..